After learning of Michael Pachter's method of making predictions, that of the "gut" variety, I thought it would be wise to see how the WedBush Morgan analyst's analysis' hold up once time starts crashing down on them.
I figured I would take a look at some choice samples of Pachter's predictions beginning with those made at the beginning of 2007 and see if they either came true, are still too soon to tell, or just plain wrong. I like the man but I still won't give him that much wiggle room and will try and label these with 'yea' or 'nay' responses as much as I can. So, on with it!
Prediction #1: No Bully 2 from Rockstar
GamePolitics.com - January 04, 2007
Bully sales trailed off pretty dramatically in November. In October, the regular edition of the game sold 125,000 units (I think that the collector's edition sold another 30,000 units…) in the U.S., so we should assume it sold a combined 250,000 worldwide.
In November, Bully sold 105,000 units… My guess is that the game did NOT sell particularly well at holiday, so probably another 150,000 units worldwide in December. We expect it to sell another 200,000 or so units over the next few months, and to disappear from retail shelves.
Those estimates total 800,000 units at an average wholesale price of around $30, so it will likely generate around $24 million in revenues. Since the game took three years to develop, it likely cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, and my guess is that the company did no better than to break even. I would NOT expect a sequel.
Prediction #1: True
Take-Two and Rockstar have made no indication that a sequel will be made and neither have any of the pundits chimed in on this as well. Bully was a good game but the money wasn't there to continue and Rockstar has been spending their time on other franchises as of late.
Prediction #2: Pachter Takes it Back: Bully Sequel Possible
Kotaku.com - January 14, 2007
I have been consistently wrong about this title. I thought it would be stupid, and it was fun; I thought it would get poor reviews, and it got solid 90s; and I thought it would bomb, while it now appears to be a million unit seller. As a result, I did not expect a sequel, while now I have to acknowledge that a sequel is a possibility. I never hesitate to take credit when I'm right, and I never hide from my mistakes.
Prediction #2: Wrong
Don't give me that it's still too soon to tell, because it's not and it is. Bully 2 is not coming and we all know it. He was just playing the politician because Take-Two was so furious with his initial sales reporting of the game, so he augmented his original stance.
Prediction #3: PS3 Will Win Based on Blu-Ray Movies
GameDaily.biz - May 07, 2007
Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios. Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come.
Prediction #3: On the Fence
This one technically is too soon to tell because all three consoles have only been on the market together for less than a year. Currently the Xbox has sold 11.8 million consoles, the Wii has sold 9.5 million consoles, and the PS3 is in third place with 4 million consoles. To the other side of the arguement more and more retail stores are stating that they are abandoning HD-DVD discs to stock their shelves exclusively with Blu-Ray. We still need more time for this one.
Prediction #4: Sony Will Cut PS3 Price in the Summer of '07
GamesIndustry.biz - May 15, 2007
It is possible that Sony's cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays.
Prediction #4: True
This one may seem pretty straight forward as on July 09, 2007 Sony did drop the price of the 60Gig model down $100 to the low, low price of $500. The to this one is that in August they released an 80Gig model that retained to top-tier $600 price tag. Give this one to the man.
Prediction #5: GTA IV Will be Delayed
GameDaily.biz - June 01, 2007
We believe that it is possible that the company will choose to 'throw in the towel' on FY:07 by shifting the release date for Grand Theft Auto IV by a few weeks, increasing the losses incurred this year and improving the company's prospects for FY:08. We believe that a two-week delay would provide a reasonable gap between the launch of Halo 3 and the launch of GTA IV, and would actually help sales of both games. In addition, a delay of the 'normal' SKU for GTA IV by two or three weeks could allow Take-Two to maximize revenues from the $89.99 Collector's Edition of the game by shipping that SKU on October 17, and to increase overall profitability.
Prediction #5: True
On August 02, 2007 Take-Two announced that they would be delaying the release of GTA IV until the spring of 2008. Pachter sites that the delay would be due to giving a profit buffer zone between it and Halo 3. The official Take-Two press release states that the game is now being launched in FY:08.
Prediction #6: Final Fantasy XIII Goes Multi-Platform? Nope.
GamesIndustry.biz - June 08, 2007
The series has always been single console and given the Xbox 360 sell through in Japan, it would be hard to put the next Final Fantasy instalment on the 360 only.
Square Enix faces a dilemma: put the next game on the 360 only and alienate Japanese fans, depart with tradition and make it multi-platform, or go with PS3 as an exclusive and deal with the backlash from the west.
I view Square Enix as a tradition-bound company, and expect the last alternative to be chosen.
Prediction #6: True
There was much talk about it going multi-platform and even Xbox 360 exclusive in March of 2007, but this has all fizzled off. Square-Enix has given no indication that it will release FFXIII on any other platform besides the PS3. And that's were we are on that.
Prediction #7: Xbox 360 Cuts Price on All Models
Gamasutra.com - July 09, 2007
We think that the $499 PS3 compares quite favorably with the $399 Pro 360 model, which has only a 20Gb hard drive and no HDMI output. Because of this favorable comparison, we believe that Microsoft is all but compelled to cut prices, and we think the price cuts will come no later than at Microsoft's Tuesday night press conference.
Prediction #7: True
On August 07, 2007 Microsoft officially announced that it cut the price on all three models of the Xbox 360. Now this may have not been the "following Tuesday" in July like the Professor said, but it still did happen.
Granted these are merely a smattering of Pachter's musing, but they do represent some of his more major predictions and how he fared with them. Technically five correct out of seven attempts on some major news. Either this kid has got something or time is always on his side.
Cross posted at Fiscal Gaming.